कोरोना के 100 दिन.. बाकी देशों की तुलना में भारत कहां है? अब आगे क्या?
स्पेशल स्टोरी– भारत में कोरोना वायरस महामारी के 8 मई को 100 दिन पूरे हो गए। 30 जनवरी को केरल के तृश्शूर में चीन के वुहान से एक मेडिकल छात्र लौटा, और उसने बुखार और गले में सूजन की शिकायत की। इस छात्र का SARS-Cov2 के लिए टेस्ट पॉजिटिव आया। ये भारत का पहला केस था। तब से Covid-19 ने देश में ज़िंदगी को काफी बदल दिया है। चिंता की बात ये है, कि देश को अभी इस महामारी का शिखर (Peak) देखना बाकी है।
देश में इस तरह बढ़ा संक्रमण
पहला केस रिपोर्ट होने के बाद अगले 30 दिन अपेक्षाकृत शांत रहे। इसके बाद केस की संख्या में धीमी बढ़ोतरी हुई। पहले 50 दिन में भारत में 200 से कम पॉजिटिव केस थे। अप्रैल के शुरू से केसों ने बढ़ने की रफ्तार पकड़ी, और मई में भारत में हर दिन 2,000 से ज्यादा केस रिपोर्ट हो रहे हैं।
जहां तक ब्रिटेन का सवाल है तो वहां पहला केस भारत के एक दिन बाद यानि 31 जनवरी को रिपोर्ट हुआ। फरवरी के आखिर तक ब्रिटेन में 23 केस थे। मार्च खत्म होने तक ये संख्या बढ़कर 25,000 हो गई। 7 मई तक ब्रिटेन में 2,00,000 से अधिक केस रिपोर्ट हो चुके थे।
तेजी से बढ़ रहा आंकड़ा
मई शुरू होने के साथ ही भारत में कोरोना वायरस ने विकराल रूप दिखाना शुरू कर दिया है। अब अमेरिका या ब्रिटेन की तुलना में भारत में केस ज्यादा रफ्तार के साथ बढ़ रहे हैं। अमेरिका और ब्रिटेन में केस की संख्या कहीं ज्यादा है, लेकिन भारत में वक्र के समतल होने के सबूत के लिए केस बढ़ने की रफ्तार कहीं ज्यादा धीमी करनी होगी।
टेस्टिंग में तेजी लाना जरूरी
ऐसी स्थिति में अहम फैक्टर टेस्टिंग होगा। यही तय करेगा, कि आगे स्थिति कैसे बनती है। कौन से राज्य टेस्टिंग कर रहे हैं? कौन से राज्य पर्याप्त दर से टेस्टिंग कर रहे हैं? और उससे भी अहम ये है, कि क्या वो ‘सही’ लोगों का टेस्ट कर रहे हैं, इसका जवाब अज्ञात है
महाराष्ट्र और गुजरात जैसे अधिक प्रभावित राज्यों को अधिक लोगों की टेस्टिंग करनी चाहिए. वहीं ऊंचे टेस्ट पॉजिटिविटी रेट (TPR) वाले तेलंगाना जैसे राज्य को भी अधिक टेस्टिंग की जरूरत है। उत्तर प्रदेश और मध्य प्रदेश जैसे बड़ी आबादी वाले राज्यों में बहुत कम लोगों की टेस्टिंग हो रही है। ज्यादा से ज्यादा टेस्टिंग लेकिन टेस्ट पॉजिटिविटी रेट को ऊंचा होने दिए बिना, ये राज्यों का मंत्र होना चाहिए, जिससे अगले 100 दिन में महामारी पर पूरी तरह से काबू पाया जा सके।
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